Probabilistic simulation of monetary income obtained in crops from the irrigated vegetable production system of Valle del Sinú, Colombia. / Simulación probabilística de ingresos monetarios obtenidos en cultivos del sistema irrigado de producción de hortalizas del Valle del Sinú Colombia.


In the vegetable production systems of the Colombian Caribbean, diversification in the use of land and products to be commercialized increases the complexity of the system. These systems require quantifying the productivity and risk associated with each of the selected crops and identifying the limiting factors that affect the economic return in order to prioritize the resource investment options by farmers and researchers dedicated to these systems. To guide this purpose, this study used a participatory modelling approach using qualitative and quantitative information on the production system provided by farmers from the Sinú Valley. The qualitative information provided in focus groups and individual interviews was organized using a systems approach. Quantitative information related to system variables was extracted as distribution probabilities after farmers were trained to provide quantitative estimates of variables. Model and input values for the variables were used to construct a probability simulation that allowed (i) to estimate the expected income in vegetable crops, and (ii) to identify the critical uncertainties of the production system. The analyzed crops were aubergine, sweet pepper, papaya and green beans. The simulation shows that there is an overlap of the distribution ranges for income (net present value) and the cost-benefit relationship for these crops. Consequently, one crop has no advantages over another in terms of higher benefits and lower risks. The preference for a particular crop could be explained by the differences in the investment required for each crop, where farmers with less financial capacity prefer to plant crops with little investment and shorter cycles (long beans). The analysis of the value of the information allowed identifying the variables that most affect the expected income of the production system: sale price of the products, losses associated with pests and diseases, and yield; it was determined that the variables associated with sweet pepper are the most important on the expected performance of the irrigated vegetable production system in the Sinú Valley.

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